Полная версия интервью журналу “Эксперт-Казахстан” от 3 марта (выдержки были опубликованы в номере от 16 марта).
– Какие причины вынудили власти пойти на этот шаг?
– Объяснения, которые были предъявлены обществу официально, довольно откровенны. По сути, впервые власти признались: досрочные выборы объявляются, поскольку режим не уверен, что на момент планового проведения президентских выборов ситуация будет для него выигрышна. Впрочем, такое объяснение выглядит столь же прямолинейным, сколько оно является и беспомощным – в самом деле, ведь если устраивать ситуацию, не совсем штатную с конституционной точки зрения, каждый раз, когда кое-кто думает, что что-то может случиться в будущем, лучше вообще не проводить выборы. «Не дай бог, сложится непростая обстановка в мировой экономике, а нам голосовать»…
Но тут надо признать, что так оно и происходит. Выборы в Казахстане проводят досрочно далеко не в первый раз. Досрочность выборов всегда является тревожным признаков для оценки демократии в стране, и допускается лишь в исключительных случаях форс-мажора или политического кризиса. Причина – одна из сторон политического процесса (которая объявляет выборы) ставит себя в заведомо более выгодное положение по сравнению с ее оппонентами. Два месяца на выдвижение, регистрацию кандидатов и агиткампанию – это просто смешно для любого, кто знает что-то о демократических процедурах, кто понимает смысл фразы «источником власти является народ».
Но тут возникают вопросы. О каких оппонентах может идти речь, когда оппозиционных партий, по сути, не осталось, есть только сателлиты и симулякры. Лидеров беспартийной оппозиции тоже нет, отошли от дел, и даже в случае их появления, барьеры при регистрации легко их отфильтруют. Ожидать, что за оставшееся время до плановых выборов оппозиция станет значимой силой, которая станет ощутимо досаждать режиму, оснований нет. Поэтому, по-моему, тут дело в политической «традиции», привычке проводить выборы досрочно для минимизации резонанса и вовлеченности населения в сколь-нибудь политизированный дискурс. Думаю, тут играет роль также устойчивая фобия нашего режима мифической угрозы импорта цветных революций – то есть, упреждение здесь может идти не в адрес потенциальных оппонентов «дома», а в адрес страшного Госдепа. Кто-то может сказать, что легитимизация нужна режиму из-за российского фактора, агрессивности северного соседа в отношении соседей – это тоже возможно, хотя ни от чего не страхует.
Больше оснований задать вопрос «какие причины вынудили власти пойти на этот шаг» у меня лично было бы, если бы режим решил провести выборы в положенный срок.
– По какому сценарию пройдут президентские выборы? Почему нас не балуют политической драматургией, в выборах полностью отсутствует интрига?
– По привычному – съезд Нур-Отана “уговорит” действующего президента, зарегистрируют еще нескольких технических, “фоновых” кандидатов, и озвученный результат голосования даст повод наблюдателям говорить о завышенных цифрах явки и острить об очередных вершинах всенародной поддержки. Драматургия осталась в прошлом, в 1990-х – как у нас, так и в России. Для режимов, которые сложились в наших странах – а также в Азербайджане, Узбекистане, Таджикистане – драматургия стала ненужным излишеством. Тот факт, что на время предвыборной кампании в обществе, как говорится, “приоткрываются окна”, стал их раздражать и нервировать. Свою роль в отказе от управляемого политического шоу оказали “цветные революции” – темные лошадки стали непозволительным риском. Зачистка диссидентов в межэлекторальные периоды закончила работу по созданию стереотипа о безальтернативности действующего режима.
– Готовы ли власти с помощью выборов-2015 задать тренд на будущее. Например, политтехнологически расставить фигуры, политические партии, которые займут определенную нишу (бизнес, сельхоз и т.д.) и будут там формировать дискурс? Одним словом, готовы ли власти разыграть «тонкий» сценарий для выстраивания в будущем более или менее нормальной политической системы?
– Нет. Повторять этот эксперимент они не будут. Бесславный конец ранее существовавших “секторальных” партий, о которых вы говорите – Асар, Гражданская, Аграрная – говорит о том, что появления на публичном поле иных центров тяжести недопустимо с точки зрения режима.
Утопией также мне всегда казалась версия “коллективного преемника” – она предполагает готовность нынешней системы к отказу от тотального контроля над общественным полем, толерантности к дискурсу, делегированию части ответственности и прерогатив.
В противном случае, атмосфера недоверия внутри системы (которую демонстрирует максимальная централизация публичной политики, подозрительность режима в отношении возможных претендентов на власть, да и сам факт хронически досрочных выборов) не даст политической парадигме перевесить узкокорпоративные интересы отдельных групп, претендующих на участие в переделе власти после ухода первого президента.
Партия Нур-Отан, которую некоторые считают другой возможной эманацией “коллективного преемника”, вряд ли сможет стать аналогом сингапурской ПНД, поскольку так и не сложилась как автономный и устойчивый политический институт. Кроме того, на мой взгляд, еще рано говорить о планах транзита в Казахстане, поскольку действующий глава государства, похоже, искренне убежден в собственной незаменимости – по крайней мере, в среднесрочной перспективе.
Что касается перспектив “тонкого” сценария, могу предположить, что все тенденции, которым мы были свидетелями в последние годы – в политике, в области СМИ, в изменениях законодательства – никак не указывают на то, что кто-то думает о “тонком” сценарии. Все, к сожалению, делается, исходя из интересов режима, максимизации контроля, изгнания инакомыслия из публичного пространства – даже национальная или информационная безопасность в официальных документах читается как безопасность и незыблемость действующей власти.
Для транзита это очень плохо, так как второй президент унаследует не только массу полномочий в рамках конституции (которая и так чрезмерно “перекошена” в пользу президента и ставит все три ветви власти в подчиненное ему положение), но и огромный репрессивный аппарат. В таких условиях транзит не приведет к более открытому и цивилизованному обществу; скорее, на этом фоне повышается риск дворцового переворота.
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